Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (20846)	1/9/2005 5:22:19 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Rien Is To Be Credited for Turning the Typical Argument on its head, though he drives into a ditch for a moment there when he clearly suggests: a stronger dollar will mean higher commodity prices. More broadly, Rien's notion that a higher rates would depress US consumption is true--but not if accompanied by a higher dollar, imo. Finally, I am unconvinced Washington has a burning desire right now to get the Chinese to re-peg. Bush already won re-election so the political pressure is off. What is liklier is that Washington would like Europe and others to complain about the Yuan instead. It's very hard to know what an Administration really wants in its Second Term. Usually its interests come out of alignment with all the Congressman, who want to get re-elected. So I am going with Ideological Goals, to forecast what the Administration "really" wants. SS reform and Tax Reform. To the extent the Administration is willing to help the GOP in the mid-terms, they obviously want Employment to be decent in 2006. A lower dollar against "anything" is what they've concluded is required. Best, LP

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