Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: energyplay who wrote (58595)	1/9/2005 11:00:32 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) of 74559

I am starting to wonder what the odds are Prechter is right. In other words, we think we're headed into a multi-year commodity boom, a la the 1970's but we're not. The same thing happened in the late 1920's and preceded the crash of the 1930's. In that case, one is better off in cash, maybe even over gold. I don't know but oil and other commodities look weak and as the carry trade gets wound up with the Fed promising to increase rates much more than they should (they never learn, do thay), the money flooding back into USD will be the financial tsunami that causes a multi-month dollar bull. Some rotation into US stocks may occur, but if carry trade accounts are being shut down, the implications for any sector that has attracted 'hot money' the last few years is not good. Meaning cash will outperform this year. That is what the Chinese are saying about the Year of The Rooster. "Money becomes scarce". We are seeing quite a bit of cash-raising going on, and for undervalued, cash-rich companies, while they make us want to say "it can't be", well maybe it can.

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