The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (24411)	1/11/2005 10:38:01 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

The pattern of this market is that institutions and many analysts haven't done their homework or think we are in permanent blissful nirvana, and the shorts have largely given up, so when the poor news starts to hit later, they will be reactive. So we may see choppy topping action for awhile depending on whether the Fed gets back into the printing press game (which I think they will). If they don't, the fall may happen quickly. But fundamentally I think you will see the effects showing on new housing soon, as in now. The evidence will be in the MBAA purchase index which is real time rather than old dated. Once the PI goes below 380-400, that may shift psychology first for the marginal speculative buyer idorfman.com who buys second and third McMansions and then rents them to "ner do wells" or bears like us (or some combination thereof) <g>.

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