From a strictly military standpoint, Syria is a weak sister. We can take Bashir Assad out with our hands tied behind our backs.
It's the political fallout that matters most since doing so would probably activate Hizbollah, a much more formidable adversary than AQ, to the detriment not only of us but of Israel. If Hizbollah gets in the picture, then we have a legitimate beef with Iran. So, a whole new cycle of violence starts which I'm not sure we have either the political or military resources to deal with.
So, no full-scale, major military attack is likely under foreseeable circumstances. This, however, does not rule out an attack which is precise, pinpointed, and symbolic. A way to let Boy Tough Guy know who's boss. And it's about damn time. He is protecting a lot of the guys who are probably responsible for the Iraqi insurgency. He should know that this is not a game he can play for very long; we need to deliver the lesson.
I think it's a semi-bluff designed to make the Boy Dictator do what he can to keep the former Iraqi Baathists he is protecting from wreaking excessive havoc in the upcoming elections. However, if Assad ignores the bluff and allows them to do as they please, then he will suffer military consequences, though I think they will be very specific and very limited. If he doesn't respond in kind to whatever W does militarily, however, he'll be in trouble domestically in Syria, and face a rebellion from his commanders. He has to establish that he is a real tough guy or be swallowed whole. On balance, I think that Assad has a strong incentive to rein in the Iraqi thugs he has under his wings. But it won't come without a price since his army folks will know that he caved in to US pressure. A real lose/lose for Assad. If this is the way we're playing it, it's freaking brilliant.
So, yes, I think some limited military response against Syria will happen if Assad doesn't control the Iraqi bad boys in Syria.
I love it. Put his tiny testicles in the grinder.
On the other hand, if he allows the elections to go forward without too much trouble, he can let the former Baathists create havoc again after the elections are concluded. I presume, however, that our threat/ultimatum has taken care of that eventuality.
We'll see. |
