Vladimir Putin and the Global Realignment
[EDIT: The ironies implicit in what this article points to (if so) abound. Bush admin policies are helping lead to the Russia-China alliance that Bush's Republican forefathers feared in the 1950s and 1960s. And may lead to the undermining of the dollar that Saddam may have been trying for prior to the invasion.]
By Mike Whitney
January 10, 2005
“Russia revealed it was fitting its strategic bombers with cruise
missiles capable of delivering a massive precision strike thousands of miles
away—giving away the first clear hint of its post-Cold War military
strategy.” Moscow AFP
Putin’s fall from grace has been swift and steep. He’s gone from the White
House penthouse to the Crawford chicken coop in just a matter of weeks. The
man who George Bush affectionately refers to as “Pootie-poot” is no longer
the trusted ally and bosom companion he was in the first four years of the
Bush regime. Instead, Washington is reassessing its connection to the
Russian president and reshaping its foreign policy to fit the new
developments.
On the surface, the Bush administration is limiting its criticism to
Putin’s increasingly autocratic behavior; foreclosing on regional elections,
shutting down the free press, and upsetting the results of the Ukrainian
election. The press has taken a similarly strident approach; offering
hard-edged recriminations of his “authoritarian” and anti-democratic
actions. It’s all twaddle. The US would prefer to do business with tyrants
and has offered its tacit support to nearly every despot on the planet.
Putin’s vanishing popularity had nothing to do with his tightening grip on
state power or his dictatorial behavior. What bothers the administration is
Putin’s determination to maintain control over Russia’s vital resources, his
growing resistance to US expansion in central Asia, and his development of
high-tech nuclear weapons.
Reasserting State control over vital Resources
Putin rose to power with a broad mandate to clean up the economic system
by targeting the “oligarchs”; the seven Russian billionaires who purloined
most of Russia’s mineral, industrial and media wealth at bargain-basement
prices. His ineffectual and (oftentimes) inebriated predecessor Yeltsin gave
away the nations crown jewels in a fire-sale that Western capitalists
celebrated as a “positive step towards democracy”. By all standards it was a
dismal failure. Unemployment soared, pensions were cut, food shortages
increased, the health care system collapsed and the ruble crashed.
Unrestricted, deregulated capital reared its head and the Russian economy
floundered aimlessly in recession. The IMF dispatched its neo-liberal goons
to assist in the “transition to a market-based economy”; a euphemism for the
wanton plundering of public assets and a precipitous decline into
unsustainable debt. They applied the same “structural readjustment,
privatization, supply-side” mumbo-jumbo that has plagued third-world
countries across the globe. Its affects on the Russian economy were as
catastrophic as they have been everywhere else.
The country was in virtual meltdown when Putin took the helm. His attack
on the oligarchs wrested power back to the state, but it was also lambasted
in the West as a march towards tyranny. Not surprisingly, no similar qualms
were registered when Putin was hammering Groznyy mercilessly, killing
thousands in the process. The selective indignation of the press is geared
more towards outrage at financial meddling than it is at the mere murder of
innocents.
Nationalizing Oil
When oligarch, Mikail Khodorkovsky (Russian oil magnate) decided to use
his illicit billions to fiddle the political system, Putin tossed him in the
Gulag, where he remains today. Khodorkovsky tried to transfer ownership of
Russia’s largest oil company Yukos to friends in Israel and put American
businessmen in charge of overall operations. It was a clear strategy to
shift control of Russia’s greatest natural resource to outside of the
country. ( “Think for a moment what might have happened if the Yukos owners
had managed to sell control of their company last July to Chevron-Texaco or
Mobil, as Khodorkovsky intended - Russia as an independent oil exporter
would have been on its way to a level of independence that is less than
Aramco, the Saudi oil company” John Helmer; Asia Times) Putin responded by
arresting him and putting Yukos under state control. In other words, he
acted in the public interest. In a century of scarce resources, the
Heads-of-State don’t have the luxury of allowing ravenous tycoons to abscond
with their oil. (If Yukos had been sold to Mobil, Russian oil would have
been shipped to the US west Coast rather than Asia. This may explain the
administration’s displeasure with Putin.)
Putin’s actions raised a few eyebrows in Washington. The plot to put
Russian oil (now amounting to approximately 10% of world output) in western
hands had been temporarily foiled and Putin has shown that he’s willing to
take strong measures to preserve Russia’s natural wealth. (Would anyone
blame Venezuela’s Chavez if he took similar action?) This, of course, is
anathema to the Bush dogma, which defines “freedom” as the amount of wealth
that can be successfully navigated into the pockets of the upper 1%. For
them, carpet bagging is proof-positive that God pervades the ether. Theft is
His Divine injunction.
America’s Imperial designs on Central Asia
Though Putin is slowly rebuilding the Russian economy, his friendship
with Bush has been costly. Behind the jocular cowboy shtick, Bush has
cleverly used 9-11 to affect political changes throughout the Caucasus;
setting up bases in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Washington has quietly achieved its goal of surrounding Russia and
alienating the Kremlin from its former satellites. The new arrangement has
also meant lucrative oil deals for American energy giants and the prospects
of developing future pipeline routes that will be critical in the coming
century. (The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceylon pipeline is anticipated to be up and
running by 2005).
As the bases have gone up, Putin has grown more and more agitated,
sometimes lashing out angrily at the administration. (Two weeks ago he
called Bush’s behavior “dictatorial”) He is surrounded by the “old guard”
who see US ambitions as a noose that is tightening around Russia’s neck. The
borders are now littered with American bases and Russia’s sphere of
influence is steadily shrinking. The attempt by Bush to tip the Ukraine
election in America’s favor (by pumping $650 million into the campaign) has
succeeded, but it has sent up a red flag at the Kremlin. Now, Russia can’t
budge. American cat’s paw NATO will be at Moscow’s back door and access to
the resource-rich Caspian may be cut off.
Putin has been moving quickly to counter the sudden projection of American
power into the region. Secretly, he has been developing a new generation of
high-tech weaponry to ward off the encroaching American onslaught.
Moscow; AFP reports: “Russia revealed it was fitting its strategic
bombers with cruise missiles capable of delivering a massive precision
strike thousands of miles away—giving away the first clear hint of its
post-Cold War military strategy.” And, that’s not all. These long-range
conventional cruise missiles are attached to intercontinental bombers would
be capable of penetrating US defense systems. Putin also announced on Dec 6,
that Russia had successfully tested a “hypersonic intercontinental missile
that uses cruise missile technology to zigzag and avoid being shot down once
it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere…Russia also announced that it was making
its most feared and powerful trans-Atlantic missile mobile within the next
two years.” (AFP)
“Mobile nukes”, “hypersonic intercontinental missiles”, and, apparently,
more surprises in the very near future. Russia is tooling up for war in a
major way.
The western media has completely ignored these developments, but there’s
no disputing that American national security is gravely affected by the
Russian nuclear built-up. For all practical purposes, George Bush has
single-handedly restarted the Cold War and hastened the growth of newer and
more lethal nuclear weapons. America’s expansionist activities in central
Asia have created a standoff that has the potential for disaster.
It appears that Putin was never seriously duped by Bush. The boorish
displays of male comradely and Texas bravado were lost on the KGB alumna.
The announcement of these new weapons systems implies that Putin must have
begun work on them soon after Bush withdrew from the ABM (Anti-Ballistic
Missile) treaty. Trust in Bush never clouded Putin’s judgment; he went
straight from his “soul-mate’s” retreat in Crawford to the Russian
weapons-production facility.
Global Realignment: Russia-China Axis?
In a December 16, article, ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern stated that China
and Russia have entered into an agreement for “substantial military
exercises on Chinese territory in 2005” and that “Sino-Russian strategic
coordination has attained an unprecedentedly high level”. This is yet
another sign that America’s intrusion into central Asia is causing concern.
Both China and Russia understand Washington’s game and are building their
alliances accordingly. Now we’re faced with two major regional powers
“ganging up” on the new kid on the block. This doesn’t augur well for the
Bush team. Russia can do a great deal to address China’s energy needs and
they can also provide them with deadly weapons systems. Central Asia is
rapidly shaping up to be the most volatile area on the planet.
Ironically, a confrontation between the East and West may occur in the
Middle East rather than in Asia. Russia has important contracts with Iran
for developing nuclear plants and for oil exploration. They’ve also doubled
their shipments of oil being transported via the Caspian and through Iran
from last year. Similarly, China just signed a massive $200 billion deal
with Iran for oil, natural gas and pipeline development. These deals may
have a dramatic affect on the decisions that are currently being made in the
Oval Office. China’s negotiations with Iran have been accompanied by
escalating rhetoric from the White House. It’s clear that Bush and Co. feel
that military action may be their only opportunity to control Iranian oil.
Without that oil, both the American economy (which is underwritten by $7
trillion of debt) and the dollar are headed for the dumpster. The future
management of the global economy depends in large part on who controls the
flow of oil from Iraq and Iran. Despite the ludicrous claims of “fighting
terrorism” or “spreading democracy”, the underlying reality is not hard to
grasp. The hand on the oil spigot, rules the world. (Note: the Atlantic
Monthly confirms that the Pentagon has already simulated an invasion of
Iran)
We’re entering a new period of global instability. The post-war system of
alliances is crumbling and the centers of power are shifting like tectonic
plates. America’s “go-it-alone”, preemptive strategy has put the dominoes in
motion and everywhere nations are retrenching. In many ways, this leaves the
US with very little room to maneuver. If China tires of our saber-rattling
and stops buying US bonds, the dollar will certainly crash. Similarly, if
Putin decides to counter American moves in Ukraine or Iran by switching to
the Euro, the shock-waves would be felt around the globe. (As this is being
written officials at the central banks of both Russia and Indonesia said
that their banks were considering reducing the share of dollars in their
reserves. Even more alarming were reports that China’s central bank may have
trimmed its purchases of American Treasury bonds) America’s recklessness has
undoubtedly convinced many of the worlds leaders that it can no longer be
trusted as a responsible guardian of the global economic system. The actions
of China and Russia are probably just the first of many shots over America’s
bow. The empire’s vulnerabilities will become more apparent as time goes by.
Proliferation, realignment and economic sabotage are three salient signs
that US plans face stormy seas ahead. It looks like Putin may figure
prominently in whatever crisis America will meet in the very near future.
(Note: “For a decade Washington has backed the Turkish and Azerbaijan
governments to steer the export of Caspian region crude oil away from
Russia. Russia's newest riposte has been to ally the Russian and Iranian oil
industries, and open up the shortest, cheapest and most lucrative oil route
of all, southwards out of the Caspian to Iran.” (John Helmer) This route
poses the greatest imaginable threat to the Bush administrations plans for
controlling the transport of oil from the Caspian Basin. The
administration’s covert involvement in the fraudulent Azerbaijan elections,
their clandestine role in the coup in the Republic of Georgia (“Rose
Revolution”) and, of course, the war in Iraq have all been focused on the
ultimate goal of controlling the vast resources of the Caspian region. The
Russian-Iranian connection poses a serious challenge to those aims.) Read
“Putin’s Hands on the Oil Pumps” by John Helmer, Asia Times for an excellent
analysis of the current dilemma. |
