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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (21101)1/12/2005 9:13:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
U.S. Nov. trade gap grows to record $60.3 billion
Wednesday, January 12, 2005 1:48:36 PM
afxpress.com

WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. exports sank 2.3 percent in November, driving the U.S. trade deficit to all-time high of $60.3 billion, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday

While exports fell to a five-month low of $95.6 billion, imports rose 1.3 percent to a record $155.8 billion as the bill for imported oil rose by 17.7 percent, or more than $2 billion, to a record $14.2 billion. The figures are adjusted for seasonal factors, but not price changes

The trade gap increased 7.7 percent from October's revised $56 billion and 50.8 percent from November 2003's $40 billion

Wall Street economists were expecting the trade deficit on goods and services to shrink to about $53.3 billion, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch

In the first 11-months of 2004, the trade gap totaled $561.3 billion, beating the annual record of $496.5 billion set last year with another month to go. Year-to-date, imports have risen 16 percent, while exports are up 12 percent

The trade gap has widened despite a weakening dollar, which theoretically should make U.S. goods and services more competitive both at home and abroad. Wednesday's report is likely to put more pressure on the dollar, and it will likely renew pressure on Washington to do something about energy independence and the trade imbalance with China

The declining dollar cannot overcome weak demand in Europe. In addition, the dollar's value has barely budged against major Asian currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, which is pegged firmly to the dollar..

Some of the worsening trade balance comes from the imported oil bill, but the largest source is China, whose exports to the U.S. are up by nearly $40 billion year-to-date

In November, the gains in imports were led by the $1.4 billion rise in industrial materials, including a $2.1 billion increase in crude oil imports. The quantity of oil imported rose to 10.9 million barrels a day from 10.2 million while the average price fell to $41.15 from a record $41.79 in October

Imported consumer goods and foods and feeds also showed modest increases. Imports of autos and capital goods fell

The decline in November exports was led by a $1.4 billion drop in capital goods, including $325 million in aircraft and aircraft engines. Exports of industrial materials fell by $800 million, mainly energy goods. Exports of autos, consumer goods and foods and feeds also declined

Imports from China dipped in November from $19.7 billion to $19.6 billion. Exports to China were flat at $3 billion. The country-specific trade data is not seasonally adjusted, so the decline could have more to do with the timing of imports for the Christmas season
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