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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (24461)	1/12/2005 9:57:24 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) of 110194

Important to Note We're Still in the Period Where Official "reversals" like Snow's comments last week can act to bring the USD back up. Washington still has the power to reverse. We must watch like hawks therefore for the signs which tip a change in that ability, that power. I am tempted to call today's Trade Numbers something akin to a Sea Change for the whole forex complex, coming as it does after a sharp, unsustainable rally last week, and all the chatter "against" Asia. The "VIX" of Official Banker Chatter is rising. That too is a sign. I would also suggest today's "reactions" to today's Trade Numbers--again coming when they come, during this drama of the dollar--are going to take time to be fully reacted to. We've seen big moves already in the JPY but going forward we may reflect there was under-reaction in the market (as there often is). I think the dollar "rally" of last week set the USD up for a more terrible fall, and I think that process was set in motion this AM. LP

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