Newbie here to both your message board and gold miners, I've enjoyed posts here particularly from Slider and Croesus.
Almost bit today on DROOY and may tomorrow, but it does look like the falling knife.
I'm a contrarian by nature, have been very successful in other markets, so attracted by the arguments that you've made here and risk doesn't scare me as I diversify to a fault.
Here's my problem when I analyze DROOY.
To me, it seems the biggest variable is SA policy, both monetary and fiscal.
The dollar will gradually fall against gold, DROOY will eventually spin off its non SA holdings, insiders will continue to buy (perhaps sending a manipulative signal), DROOY will continue to operate at a loss for much of the next year, dilution will continue perhaps to the extent that TA is quite skewed. I think all of that is built in within a rational degree of error, to the share price.
What I don't understand is the SA policy. How could they let this industry fall as far as it has? It's not just monetary policy. I was reading in the latest DROOY registration that SA is proposing a tax on revenue. This would, in essence, tax the sale of gold even if they are losing money. This basically increases the cost of production independently of all the factors raised in my previous paragraph.
Anyone have any information on the likelihood of this passing?
Anyway, sorry for interrupting tons of great posts here. Just thought I'd give a new lurkers' opinion and questions as I probably reflect many others who read here. |
