Ah, this is a much nicer problem than manoeuvres and murder: <question about NZD, will it drop from current levels, against what (AUD?), in your opinion.
To put it another way, are there visible signs of distress from the high currency yet?
Translation: is reversion to the mean in the cards?>
It's more like fun.
A year ago, I thought that the high NZ$ must be leaving the farmers and other exporters wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth. I was wrong. I reported about March to BBR that contrary to my expectations and as told to me by a candidate for the executive of Federated Farmers [or some such body], who we chanced upon and had an interesting chat at an A&P show [Agriculture and Produce], that in fact farmers were having a great time.
Huh? He elaborated that world prices were high and so although farmers were not getting obscene profits, they were making hefty profits despite the move from US40c to US70c.
I believe that situation still applies. Certainly I haven't seen much indication that woe is upon NZ at all. The economy is surging along [small though it is - these things are relative], people are happy, unemployment is at a 20 year low [though I think that ignores other kinds of welfare bludgers], property prices are at what seem silly heights and nothing can go wrong. Meanwhile Helengrad continues to spend like there's no tomorrow and their cash flow and surpluses continue to boom.
I am sure that reversion to a mean is likely. The AUD is also performing like the Kiwi$.
I am NOT converting my US$ to NZ$. I was foolish to miss the 44c price I could have had, hoping for a greedy little bit of volatility which didn't happen and it raced away to 50c, 60c, 70c with me still holding the US$. Now, I am waiting for the US$ interest rates to get back to where they need to be, the NZ$ interest rates to rise further, the Kiwi debtor to start to squeal, and sell, prices to drop, panic to set in and the Kiwi$ to drop to 50c or 40c.
Uncle Al KBE has got to be careful, but the direction is set and the quantity must be back towards the 7% realm, so we creditors can enjoy many Happy Meals again after a few years of hunger and earnings of 1 Hamburger interest on US$1 million.
QCOM will plough right through all that transition due to burgeoning sales, exponential earnings, without asymptote and mega$ in the bank.
Such is my theory.
Mqurice
PS: In my "try harder" comment, I meant Zeus, not me, or you. I left off a full-stop and a paragraph. I meant you are high-ranking, which makes me envious and think I should conduct manoeuvres against you and redistribute your adulatory income to we less well-off.
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That's so annoying. Such wealth is unfair and should be shared. Helengrad would deal with you! Lucky for you you are in Hong Kong, where you can keep it all for yourself. |
