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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks
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To: isopatch who wrote (19970)1/13/2005 7:37:52 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (3) of 108671
 
hi Isopatch,

1. USD could have started a multi month rally
Message 20933374

2. Crude is still on a downtrend looking towards the mid-high 30s (which should be a LT buy)

3. PPT was not doing a good job with the NASDAQ. Seems that they do have a limited budget.

4. I hear a lot about the 5th year of a decade being a bull year. To me this doesn't sound like a good tell. OTOH what is a better signal IMO is when January makes a lower low over December. A bad sign - see 2002. A very bad sign when the NASDAQ makes a low lower then December's low on the 3rd trading day of the new year.

5. LT interest rates have reversed their secular down trend in 2003. Looking at a 10 year chart of the TYX (LT yield) the pattern that emerges is a false break, and it looks complete.
Trends in LT interest rates are decades long. If we're into a new up trend now it will have serious implications. Real estate market and savings rate of the public are the most direct responses, but there will be a sea change all sectors of the economy.
The most helpful advise I can give about that is if you're planning on taking a mortgage make it fixed rate only! If you have a big floating rate mortgage with over 5 years to go - change it to fixed rate at the first possible exit point or if there is no such option replace it altogether with a new fixed rate mortgage (even for a shorter duration, as long as it's 10 years and over)

ATG
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