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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: gregor_us who wrote (24605)1/13/2005 6:12:53 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
What is comical is that you fail to understand the argument.
Personally I doubt Heinz has any treasuries. I do not have any either but make the same arguments. Japan has NOT intervened in the currency market and I believe I proved that yesterday.

Brian Reynolds has followed the bond market for 20+ years and thinks domestic demand will pick up for treasuries.

From where?
I explained it already.
There is a zillion $ bond market out there.
Bond managers balance assets.
Right now they are chasing yield.
Anything damn thing with a spread to treasuries.
There is a TON of demand if and when agencies are sold to buy treasuries.
Bond managers buy bonds.
That is what they do.
If they do not like agencies they sell them and buy something else. What else? YOU TELL ME!
Just what the F is so complicated about this argument?

There are also plenty of people that see a weakening economy and like to shift from stocks to treasuries.
Just what is so FN hard to understand about that argument?

I am not asking you to believe it, but how the F can you not understand it?
Now, if we are repeating ourselves, what about every person on Russ' board, not to mention 5 recommendations a day about people writing the death knell of bonds. The argument is the same.... every FN day

What IF Japan sells
What IF China sell
What IF the man on the moon eats pineapples at sunset

Well first off
1) What makes anyone think it is in Japan's best interest to sell? Sell to buy what for Christs sake? Japanese bonds at 0%? Quite simply the argument has NOT been made. What about this do you people fail to understand: JAPAN DOES NOT WANT THEIR CURRENCY TO RISE.
2) If Japan sees value in treasuries what the F do you know that they do not? Please enlighten us.
3) What guarantee is there that someone else will NOT buy IF Japan sells?
4) What makes you think that Europe will not be intervening in the US$ or treasuries to make up for any lack of demand from Japan? Are they not bitching to high heavens?

And round and round and round we go
Look - If treasuries are a short, then short the damn things
But... don't you think there are better things to short...
Like junk, or stocks, or the US$

I keep posting the COTs over and over and over.
There is an ENORMOUS amount of people shorting treasuries.
No one understands the possibility of a flight to safety.
No one understands any of the other argumensts either.
Not a single person on the planet apparently
Not you either.

Well I take that back.
Heinz, myself, Plunger, Lacy Hunt, and that post yesterday from some billionaire that recommened treasuries. Perhaps that is how he got to be a billionaire.

If treasuries are a short, then short the damn things.

Mish
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