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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: jim_p who wrote (38435)1/14/2005 2:01:18 PM
From: Meridian  Read Replies (2) of 206326
 
Jim_p, since this is all about supply and demand, don't we need to bring on supply in order for the cycle to have peaked? Last I checked the supply was declining - North Sea, which was 70% of all non-OPEC production growth in the '90's peaked in '01 and will head lower every year. Russia is definitely slowing, Mexico's cutting back on capex and has admitted that Cantarell declines at 14%/year, Daqing in China is declining, the major integrateds aren't able to increase production organically -- they all report production AFTER acquisitions. So getting back to supply and demand, unless you expect a global recession, OPEC excess capacity is a bit tight (and the outlook is for more of the same) to proclaim and end to the cycle. JMO
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