For ADSL to be deployed in Germany, consider the following:
- In early 96 Dataquest forecasted an HDSL investment by DT in the range of 20 MUSD based on trials and network plans fom DT. Calling them end of 96, DT confirmed to me that their actual investment was < 1 MUSD. Thus, trialling ADSL/VDSL does not equal investments in the near and medium future.
- DT has done significant investment in ISDN (primarily used for voice in Germany), with heavy subsidizing to residential users in 96. IMO, they will definitely try to protect their heavy ISDN investment as long as they can. Since xDSL poses a risk to ISDN revenues, DT has no interest to actually deploying it (besides testing which they naturally need to do).
- More interesting than DT are new operators with big potential (e.g. Viag/BT, Otelo/??? - seeking for int'l partner). They could use xDSL to position themselves against DT. However, that depends on how the deregulation turf battle over access lines will end in Europe. Currently, DT owns the copper and does not give other operators access to "naked" copper lines.
Result: Don't be fooled by DT testing, instead watch the deregulation process in Europe and the hungry and fast moving alternative operators.
Regards,
ab |
