SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: dpl who wrote (21395)1/14/2005 5:08:36 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
"for the curve to invert we PROBABLY would need 2 more hikes minimum."
I don't understand this.The 10 yr is about 4 1/4 % and the FF is 2 1/4 %
It would take more than 2 hikes?
David

Nope...
The yield on the 5 yr is 3.71
The yield on the 10 is 4.21

Now it might take more than 2 hikes to close that gap but in theory it could take less (the 10 yr falls while the 5 year rises).

That said, two might be a tad optimistic, but any part of the curve could invert.

The 30 yr is 4.74
The 10 yr is 4.21

That one could easily cross on 2 more hikes

I do not have the 2 yr to 5 year spread. if someone has the symbol I will track it.

$tyx=30
$tnx=10
$fvx=5
$irx=3 month

I would really like to see a chart with all of those on it!
In ABSOLUTE terms NOT relative to each other terms.
No one yet has told me how to do that.
Mish
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News