Okay, here's my opinion on GMTN.
First though, I'm wrong a lot. Secondly, you don't post much, but when you do, your picks DO move up. I wouldn't want to be against you, and you might be right here yet again.
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I'll pass on GMTN. Just seems like we're overly
saturated with sports stores. GMTN is a recent IPO; I don't know if there's a lock up period - insiders control 65% of the stock, according to Yahoo. OTOH, I see where there's been persistent but small insider buying from $21 all the way down to $12 (per Yahoo). That makes $9.43 current price, pretty attractive.
I don't know if the companies in the sector differentiate themselves by products (exclusives, or maybe specializing in a certain aspect of sports) or by customer service or convenience or price. I'm guessing there's not much difference, so if I scan the competitors numbers...
finance.yahoo.com
GMTN doesn't look (to me) like its numbers or outlook is any better or worse than say, The Sports Authority. I don't see where GMTN stock will do better than TSA stock going forward.
Briefing.com says, "The company expects comparable store sales for the current fiscal year to be down 2-3% vs last year's increase of 11.5%. The company cited the continuing impact of unseasonably warm weather into mid-December."
If I look at the quarter-to-quarter comparisions on inventory, I see big increases...
finance.yahoo.com
Could be that that is due to having to stock their new stores. OTOH, they apparently have the wrong merchandise for the time, and they may have to take markdowns. To me, it seems like inventory is a big component of book value margin of safety, so I'm not sure book value here is that safe.
Back otoh, your analyses here have always seemed to be very good - and more importantly -g-, right, so if you say this stock's a buy, people should check closely for themselves. For me, I can't see it, and not only do I admit my vision's not that good, I've been wrong many, many times. |
