Dear Keith,
Cf growth has been between 6-8% annually for the past 30 years sans one or two years of exceptions. There doesn't seem to be any change in momentum, i.e. the gross capacity overbuild of the mid nineties was sucked up right on schedule.
As memories linger, companies have recently been loath to build extra capacity, sans Toray which won most of the business on the 7E7.
So this does present another opportunity for a small player, namely ZOLT with almost no current CF economic base to make an entry. The more important issue is one of whether they can contain gains made this time. The last go around in the 90's, most markets captured were markets lost resulting in Abilene being largely shuttered, a few lines kept open in Hungury, etc.
This point of all this is that ZOLT may be successful by default in capturing some markets. Can they keep them is the issue, i.e., will bad quality kill them again?
Regards
Bill |
