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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (156412)1/16/2005 5:12:03 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
I'll just say that Bush could have benefitted from listening to Carl <vbg>

How it plays out long term remains to be seen. Carl was not bashful about predictions. He badly misjudged Bush going to war, but did a much better job than almost anyone else that posts here on projecting the coming insurgency. In the later he outclasses many prominent political figures running this country.

If those political figures had simply been downplaying such risks to try and contain the situation it would be one thing. It seems pretty clear they were blindsided. Kudos to Carl for making the call and being right.

Trying to pin down the level of popular support and the number of insurgents etc. is not easy. US estimates are all over the map in that regard. In the coming months the insurgency might die, and peace descend on Iraq. But Carl still made a good call for the last 18 months or so.

My own opinion is that trying to make people cry uncle is simply an invitation for rebellion. So I expect the insurgency to continue as long as the USA advocates crushing it and actively seeks to do so. When it finally dawns on the US leadership that poking a stick into a beehive to stir things up, then trying to swat all the angry bees swarming out has limited utility, things may improve.
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