From his new column entiltled:
LET ME SHOW YOU HOW REALLY DUMB I AM
"Contrarian Chronicles
Intel's 'turnaround' will run aground
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The improvements shown in the latest quarter aren't sustainable; here's why. And, yes, I’m short the stock.
By Bill Fleckenstein
It's the New Year, and I'd like to begin with an "old" theme: Intel, as an investment, is on borrowed time.
Regular readers just might have heard that before. And for newcomers to The Contrarian Chronicles, please see my Oct. 18 column, "Intel: All risk and no reward."
Before Intel (INTC, news, msgs) reported its fourth-quarter results, I knew that the quarter was not going to be a problem. That doesn't mean I understood why the company was indicating they were going to be doing so well in the fourth quarter, because I did not and I do not. Nevertheless, in light of everything I had been hearing, I did not expect Intel to have a problem in the fourth quarter. Banks and insurers
check your credit.
So should you.
But I bought Intel January 2006 puts recently because I think Intel's problems will be severe this year. I still believe they're producing too many parts for the level of end demand, and they're going to have to shut down some production. I believe that competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, news, msgs) is going to be a real problem this year, and that will become clear once Dell (DELL, news, msgs) finally endorses AMD. And, I believe that the PC market is weak and getting weaker."
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