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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (24817)	1/17/2005 8:58:38 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I'm trying to locate the data on % of ARMs (and outstanding mortgage loans) that are one and three year adjustable for obvious reasons. Freddie's data is in Xcel format which I don't have. freddiemac.com Have you located this? Virtually all the ARMS based on these common indexes (1 yr CMT, 6mo-1yr LIBOR, the COFI lags but same story will also develop) will have been adjusted starting last Nov, and going forward at 150-200 bps higher rates than last year. Amazingly hardly a peep anywhere about this, and this is big. The 4.16% ARM rate being quoted is a teaser rate with fees. Today the real adjusted rate on a 1 year CMT based on Jan. 14th reported constant maturity rate and a 2.75% margin is 5.59% before the FOMC rate hike on 2/2. On a one year LIBOR it's 5.97%, and even 6 month LIBORs are 5.63%. iwould if this will kick off a little panic refit boomlet into 5/1 hybrids (about 5.2% right now) or even 30 years (5.75%). ARM holders are getting some problems on their hands, and if rates go higher could get very serious, especialy with all the subprime California wild men.

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