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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (21674)	1/18/2005 3:35:42 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Chicago PMI revisions show slightly slower net growth - Tuesday, January 18, 2005 8:13:22 PM afxpress.com CHICAGO (AFX) -- The figures may have been revised, but the net effect is the same: Chicago-area business was growing late last year, but at a slower clip than earlier in 2004 The latest seasonal adjustments to the Chicago Purchasing Managers index, produced each month by the National Association of Purchasing Management -- Chicago, were released over the weekend December's index now stands at 61.9 percent, up from the 61.2 percent first reported But the three-month average from October to December turned negative for the first time in three months, the group said. Downward seasonal adjustments for October and November offset the upward adjustment to December. October's index reads 67.7 percent, revised from 68.5 percent. November's index was knocked back to 63.8 percent from the 65.2 percent first reported The report is a diffusion index, measuring the breadth of activity across companies. Readings above 50 percent indicate that more than half of respondents said business is better or the same The barometer's headline figure has been above 50 percent for 20 straight months The latest revisions also show that December's employment subindex was revised to show expansion, not the contraction first reported. The measure stood at 51.1 percent last month, not 49.1 percent The closely watched prices paid subindex for December was unchanged at 84.4 percent The group said it uses seasonal adjustments to revise its data each year by finding the best historical data that "fit" the current situation. Matching historical data typically lead to adjustments in the statistical weights associated with the trend, cycle and seasonal components of the monthly report. The group puts out initial readings each month based on projections for seasonal factors

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