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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (24846)1/18/2005 5:10:50 PM
From: loantech  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Russ rates are between 4.75% and 5.125% for 3/1 and 5/1 ARMS. Most buyers are opting for the 3/1 ARM is they get the ARMS.

Not a lot of refi activity at this time.

As far as teasers go lenders are not doing loss leaders so to speak where they lose on the start rate to generate business. They may not make as much on the back end but are not usually subsidizing anything.

I am with you if we see rates go up a point they cannot switch to a longer term fixed except for an even higher rate and if short term rates move up there is not much difference at this time between the 3 or 5's.

I don't hear that much about layoffs yet. A lot of lenders run a lot more lean than some think they do, pay overtime etc. so they do not hire up so much in a hot refi market so they do not have to layoff when the refi's cool. Would not be surprised though to see layoffs coming up as business seems to have slowed.

But as you know Portland is still a bubble market. I saw an article in the paper over the weekend where the realtors are claiming a lack of inventory. Over the last 30 years though I have seen this market turn on a dime several times and it is usually to the downside of activity and price when it happens.
tom
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