PD is 18% of world supply according to this article from April 04, but Henderson is less than half
PD's 2003 moly production was about 52 million pounds, down from prior years as a result of reduced copper mining during the downturn. This year it could approach 60 million pounds. PD's goal for copper is 2.3 billion pounds.
azstarnet.com
Henderson has been operating at half its 40m pounds per year capacity, so this will add 20m pounds, presumably
"Henderson Mine also operated at less than 50% of its 18,000-t/yr (40-million-pound-per-year)" re:2003, this is 9,000 tons, 10,000MT
minerals.usgs.gov
Demand is about 140,000 MT a year
www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty080904.html+moly+demand&hl=en&client=firefox-a
in 2003 280 million pounds (approx 140,000 MT)
kaiserbottomfish.com
So 9000 tons/10,000MT is 7% of world demand. For Moriarty's 140,000 number, I'm not sure if that is projected to 2005. Also, the Chinese may remove supply.
Assuming Henderson was 20 million pounds per year and PD as a whole 52 million, then 32 million+40 million=72million production, assuming no decline in production from other mines. If so then the 60 millon pound estimate from the first article is better. IOW, at 140,000MT PD will produce 50% of est 2005 demand.
It appears production is growing about 10% p.a., but that is based on production. Demand will be driven by steel production, which may grow 9% in this article, and that would mop up PDs extra supply:
He attributed it to global steel output increasing 9 percent in 2004, a shift to higher molybdenum-using stainless alloys away from nickel, Phelps Dodge not producing more moly as demand grew, and the decline of Chinese molybdenum exports.
mineweb.net |
