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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (24967)	1/19/2005 6:20:33 PM
From: redfrecknj	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Basis for lightening up? "In the past twelve months the CPI increased 3.5%. This advance reflected a 56% surge in oil prices from the end of 2003 to the close of last year, as well as large increases in some key commodity price indexes to all time highs. In the present situation, such events are contractionary, not inflationary, even if they temporarily lift the core inflation rate. They are only permanent if the Fed monetizes them by accelerating monetary growth. The rate of increase in M3 like that of M2 dropped to a nine year low in 2004, effectively isolating the higher oil and other commodity prices. The CPI should reverse sharply to the downside this year, and the multi-year low in the core inflation rate lies ahead." Hoisington Investment Management Company Quarterly Review and Outlook Fourth Quarter 2004 By Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt, Ph.D. January 17, 2005 investorsinsight.com

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