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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (25017)	1/20/2005 11:32:44 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 110194

russ, I think you should abandon train wreck and switch to the titanic instead. I think we have entered iceberg territory. I think we have no lights, no radar. I think we have the Bush and his fiscal cronies on the starboard watch. Only problem being that this group would not recognize an iceberg if they see one. I think we have Greenmagoo and his monetary cronies on the port watch. Only problem being that Greenspan kept trying to climb up to the bow pulpit and screaming something like "I am the king of something something ....." The stage is set. As we keep going full speed, there are so many icebergs that I just don't see how we could possibly miss them. A summary of some of the sectors that I have been looking at: Airlines - every airline is hurting, even LUV. They have already cut down to the bone and still bleeding. Now we are heading toward the low season...... Auto - I actually only follow GM and F, which are only in existence to fund the pension plans. They can trigger systemic failure to the junk market. GSE - the banks got the white house in their back pocket. Though they will lose business with Freddie and Fannie, they stand to make a fortune replacing them. Homebuilders - just take 2002-2004 and reverse time. Housing has a huge multiplier effect. Recession time? Mortgage insurance - if the market ever returns to 1990 conditions, how much reserve do they need? I don't know if I am just too pessimistic but it seems like everywhere I look, I see icebergs. Even ebay. Remember back in December when retail was so so, many spinners were talking about how much of that had gone online. Well, ebay is about as big as online shopping as they come. Where are the consumers?

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