I am looking at the tea-leaves and the latest events (SJ and Amber) and am still sticking to my theory that settlement discussions are very close to final. It is interesting to note that the parties new about the SJ on Jan 4th, which is before Tate suddenly retired as CEO. We now have a VERDICT for infringement for the very first time so let me speculate again:
a. Schumacher and Tate both gone from CEO positions - both left immediately - IFX searched for a new CEO, Rambus did not. I believe Hughes was grabbed on short notice after SJ to make the settlement happen. I further believe that Rambus will search for a new CEO after settlement.
b. Ziebart's dilemma - does he want to jeopardize his own career and his stockholders investment by continuing on the litigation path? If he could settle today for, say, $ 200M - get the same rate as the other licensees going forward and concentrate on being one of the players still standing in 2007-2008 would that no be better than to litigate for the next 3-5 years and risk losing $ 1b+ for his shareholders AND potentially being locked out from the new technology such as XDR? I think the SJ is what would motivate him to settle. Rambus could easily sue IFX on the very same patents they just won SJ on (these patents are not in the current IFX trial because they were not granted when Rambus filed suit).
c. Hynix, who actually once signed a license for DDR and SDR, could get their day in court but what are the chances of getting 4 patents nullified?
d. Micron spilled the beans on Hynix and IFX in the DOJ case – who’s to say they won’t do it again – it cost IFX $ 160M and is about to cost Hynix – maybe Micron will do it again and get onboard with Hynix, maybe IFX sees the writing on the wall and does not want to be left out?
e. Judge Payne might go against Rambus, as he has in the past, BUT Judge Payne can not control the CAFC NOR can he control a potential new trial on the newer Rambus patents that Hynix was just found to be infringing!
My conclusion is that I believe the amigos wants to settle and Rambus wants to settle. I strongly believe the management changes that have taken place in Rambus and IFX has paved the way for a settlement. I guess Rambus could be emotionally motivated to go all the way down the litigation path but that would hurt the stockholders who invested with hard earned cash, it would bring increased litigation cost (at least 4 simultaneous trials) and it would leave the uncertainty cloud hanging over Rambus – a cloud that prevents the larger institutions from buying and covering the stock. The same is true for the amigos – the potential end to the litigation could be the demise of their businesses and a huge loss for their shareholders (who sooner or later will start to voice their opinion). I think we are close, VERY close – it’s a matter of giving a little and taking a little, making a deal that all parties can live with and that will make life a lot easier for everyone concerned.
Rambus – what’s the future? It is not easy to explain what Rambus does but it is fairly easy to explain what the potential of their business is based upon their inventions and the application of these in consumer goods. We are looking at a future which will require more bandwidth, more storage, more memory to fuel all the audio, video and text that will be transmitted in PC’s, Automobiles, TV’s, Cell Phones and Games to name a few. The need for ultra-fast memory design and increased capacity will explode and Rambus is the glue that makes it all work. Sony has seen this and is front and center adopting new Rambus technology. Toshiba, Sony and IBM are backing a cell-initiative that easily could end up in all the consumer goods mentioned and more. Now start imagining if Rambus gets, say $ 1.00 for EVERY new TV, automobile, PC, cell phone etc etc – we are looking at some enormous numbers – just like Microsoft got MS/DOS in (almost) every personal computer way back when.
Game over |
