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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: SofaSpud who wrote (3525)	1/21/2005 10:26:06 AM
From: Robert Douglas	of 3536

Personally I'm not all that persuaded by the doom and gloomers. I'm not in that camp either. In fact, I believe that more declines in the dollar are necessary to spur foreign governments to stimulate their economies. You hear a lot of complaints coming from Japan, Germany, France et. al. trying to convince us that strengthening our currency is good for us. I think we've learned that these countries are not "in it" for our good. I also believe that the budget deficit is not the problem and narrowing it will, in itself, do little. Our trading partners are just trying to shift the blame for domestic political reasons. I can not see any justifiable reason why we should be running a trade deficit with developed countries like Germany or Japan, especially Japan who also runs a surplus with China. The dollar must decline vs. the yen to shift these buying patterns. I believe this will be a major factor over the next 5 years as long held patterns of trade change in favor of U.S. companies. I believe it will go so far as to shift the market mix in favor of U.S. auto companies vs. Toyota/Honda, Caterpillar vs. Komatsu and Boeing vs. Airbus.

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