Rick, I think that many short term investors have a "buy on the rumor, sell on the news approach", and news usually does bring out more posters. However, I think that your contrary indicator theory lacks any hard data.
When LGND announced the sequence of the leptin promoter 15 months ago, it was widely carried in the media (USA Today, CNBC, and many other locations). When LGND's CEO went on CNBC to discuss the development, LGND's price went to its all time high (19 3/4). I think it rose a couple of points in 15 minutes after the interview. To indicate that these events are secondary to frequencies of SI or MIS posts is simply absurd.
I think you give far too much weight to these boards. Back when LGND went public and traded 10-15,000 shares a day, some news on a board might have moved the price unjustifiably. However, to think that daily volumes of 200,000 to 500,000 are influenced by the frequency of posts is a bit much.
I do tend to post more when there is more news because more read the boards and I enjoy updating readers on LGND's science and potential. However, I think that you are putting a bit too much weight on your contrary indicator theory. |
