Tom,
The January decline in LBTYA broke an uptrend line. In addition to this, the 20 day moving average is sloping down. Three days ago saw a topping tail into the 20 dma. This suggested weakness. Yesterday saw a second failed test of the 20 dma with a bearish candle. This sort of chart set up is shortable nearly 100% of the time. This makes it a very good low risk trade.
Today's bullish candlestick has changed the character of the play, no doubt. However, if the play is to work, the price has to come down to me. That's key! If the price comes down to me, the down trend is confirmed. Today's attempt to rally will be nullified.
The worst that happens, at this point, is that the trade doesn't trigger.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G
I realize a lot of people don't like to short. They should learn to overcome this fear, in my opinion. It's the short plays that have the portfolio showing a profit this month.
If one doesn't learn how to play both sides of the market, I don't see how they can consistently outperform the market year in and year out.
There's nothing wrong with raising cash. I've done that myself. The portfolio is only 25% invested as of today.
dabum |
