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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions
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To: DOUG H who wrote (4105)1/21/2005 11:25:19 PM
From: Walkingshadow  Read Replies (1) of 8752
 
Now there's two upside black candles to contend with on that weekly chart: the first candle of the year, and this week's candle.

139.142.147.218

This week closed on chart support from April. If that is breached to the downside, $36 is an easy walk down, and I make that to be the next chart support.

After that is the lower BB rail. I think it is pretty likely that will be the target, and a potential reversal point. Right now, that would be $34.

The bad news is that this is the worst start to a year since 1982---3 down weeks in a row. In retrospect, the medium term correction began on the first trading day of the year. Further bad news is that every single relief rally this year has been met with resistive volume that can only be resolved by more downside.

The good news is that now volume patterns are shifting. A significant portion of the upside volume has been "worked off", and in the process, downside volume has begun to accumulate. This should continue to increase as the markets move down, and bodes very well for the long term. This volume pattern will fuel the resumption of the long-term uptrend and allow it to continue for an extended period of time.

So.... things look bad now, but the bearishness is steadily being "worked off" of this otherwise bullish market.

While things are proceeding nicely, still short is the place to be for the next several weeks, possibly the next several months.

T
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