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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: rubbersoul who wrote (25171)	1/23/2005 11:19:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Have you read Van Eeden's article about the end of the commodities bull market? I'm curious to know your thoughts on this. Prices are set at the margin. If the US slips into recession and China slows commodities can easily fall. If China slips into recession while the US is in recession there is no doubt in my mind anyway that commodity prices will fall. "Even though Chinese demand will continue to drive commodity prices higher for the next fifty to a hundred years, my own investment horizon does not stretch that far. And I am concerned that in the short-term, the current bull market in commodities has come to an end." He specifically said short term. Over the long haul I would expect energy and metals like copper to rise. Energy could even rise in the short term with geopolitical concerns. Short term one has to figure out the odds of China and the US slowing at the same time. I think those odds are pretty good. Regardless, grains will be priced according to weather and bean rust and crop plantings in Brazil and things like that. Mish

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