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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: michael97123 who wrote (156883)	1/24/2005 3:00:08 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) of 281500

I have no great hopes for this 'hudna'. Sure Hamas needs a breather but their credibility is too tied up with killing Israelis so it hurts their position to stop. Besides which, Hizbullah and Hamas-Syria have a vote, and they say 'keep up the killing'. So my prediction fwiw is a short period of calm, broken by random attacks that kill Israelis by ones and twos (Hamas knows that those are freebies, as far as the world press goes), until something more major goes boom and Israel responds in force. Then the usual yelling and blame-passing. To really impose a cease-fire Abu Mazen is going to have to have his Altalena moment, and he, like all the Pals, make it plain that he just can't do it. Not so long as the resulting charge: "Jew-lover! lackey of Israel! traitor!" is deadly in Pal politics.

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