Pete
I still get emails from people who paid Brinker for advice and are upset that he has not been held accountable for it. They paid for and followed his advice to buy QQQQ for up to half their cash reserves in the $80's way, way back in 2000. He pretends that he did not give that advice, that he went bearish in Jan 2000 and stayed that way until March of 2003. WIth the high beta of the QQQs, someone who followed his advice to put 50% of cash reserves into them probably got close to market returns.
Brinker had his web site private back then where only those of you who subscribed were allowed to post there. When Brinker's QQQQ trade fell from the $80's to the $60's, he closed his web site when 2000 ended, then in his newsletter he put out a new QQQQ buy as if the first one had not happened! QQQQs fell all the way to $19 and change and have now recovered to $36, still over half what he advised they buy at.
People are upset that he left them holding the bag while the record he uses to sell newsletters avoided the QQQQ advice.
Some I know are still upset at his recommending an internet B2B fund, TEFQX, with a full page in his newsletter which went from high teens to low single digits and is now $2.97. Do you remember asking me about that fund BEFORE Brinker put it in his newsletter?
"Be careful with this fund, TEFQX, as it is going up sort of artificially. These internet stocks coming public now only release a small percentage of their shares. This means the demand far outstrips the supply of stock shares. The game is to have the insiders sell some of their shares at inflated prices before the price falls back to Earth when maybe the remaining 80 to 90% of the shares hit the market. (Kirk, December 12, 1999) suite101.com
The promo to his show was actually making fun of people who bought internet stocks... so He was making fun of many who followed his advice to buy TEFQX. I think those folks are also bitter.
I agree with most that Brinker's long term market timing has been quite good, but how can you rate his overall effectiveness when he gives his risky advice off the books? When he told people to put up to half their cash reserves into QQQ (now QQQQ) when it was in the $80's he did not tell them he would not be doing this with his model portfolios. Remember, he told people to keep their cash reserves liquid for "playing the counter trend rallies" so everyone had a right to expect the model portfolios to participate. WHen he didn't put them in the model portfolios, he still told his subscribers to stick with the trade and he still has them in it according to David Korn who follows this.
So, I don't think it is the market timing that gives Brinker's critics ammunition. I think it is how his record not a true reflection of his actual advice. |
