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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: yard_man who wrote (25280)	1/25/2005 6:51:01 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) of 110194

I Mark the Entry of the USD into the Mainstream Press as beginning right after the Election. We forget however that we've been through this all before. The USD fell only 6.00% as measured by the USDX in 2004, by 15.00% in 2003. The story entered the mainstream press then too--in 2003. (and went away of course.) My major point is as follows, using The Press (press coverage) to figure out how to take a contrarian position no longer works. That is very old school, imo. Especially with a currency. In addition, there is the popularization of contrarian thinking. Given this renewed burst of coverage on the USD here in late January, which is largely bearish--at a time the USD is actually trying to mount a counter-trend rally, while at the same time commentary from veterans and others has gotten very sloppy, very "all over the place" if you will, leads me to no strong conclusions.* You? LP * My previous view: Message 20918730

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