When Faber made his call (on his website) in early December I think the view was more clear, as was his contrarian take
he probably made it earlier in his newsletter (i don't subscribe anymore), like November, and of course earlier still in his head. i personally unwound my non-energy anti-USD plays (AUD bonds and PMs) last November, as discussed here to a skeptical audience (just like the year before, i might add). as i mentioned then, i expect PMs to be massacred and i will pick them up at a big discount, just like last April-June of last year.
in the meantime, i think it's good to just be patient. the miners haven't really been massacred yet but they're leaking. i'll know when it's time to buy when people start complaining about margin calls again--and then the stocks go down some more anyway.
I regard Zulauf's call as more substantial, really, than Faber's--in its import. I read Zulauf's call as something more lasting, maybe through mid 2005.
Zulauf picked a number (110-115 on EUR/USD) and a time frame--first half of the year. so he didn't leave a lot of leeway.
Zulauf is one of my favorite people to read in Barron's, but it should be mentioned, IIRC, that at last year's (or perhaps the previous year's) Roundtable he said NEM would be a tenbagger and it was one of his reco's.
In general, I find most commentary--including my own--which attempts to gauge sentiment (and then take the other side) is often wrong.
the past couple years i have only traded in and out of anti-USD plays on about a six month basis. the sentiment and price moves at these roughly semi-annual peaks and troughs have been extreme enough to get my mouse button clicking on the BUY or SELL button. i don't try anything too cute, though.
at some point, i expect this cycle to break down somehow--there are too many weird things happening, viz. Buffett becoming a currency trader (definitely not his preferred habitat, as he mentioned in his proxy a couple years ago, but he felt he had no choice given the insanity of our financial and governmental leaders); tech specialists like Hickey debuting on Barron's Roundtable and the only long he can come up with is NEM (?!?!); utter dogs-sleeping-with-cats typa stuff.
all i can say is, if Greenspan does move 50bp, i think the PMs are gonna get creamed big time. and EUR may go back to par.
now THAT would present some interesting buying opportunities.
all JMHO! |
