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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (157008)	1/26/2005 9:23:56 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Carl, Eventually, I hope that we use the elections as an excuse to pull out. No such luck, IMO. The Bush admin will stay at least until 2006--Nov or Dec. Why then? Because of what happens on the first Tuesday of Nov 2006. Will have nothing to do with Iraq itself. The only thing that will make them leave before that is if the situation deteriorates so badly that even Republicans see what is going on in Iraq as a civil war rather than an "insurgency," as they characterize it now. Hagel is already starting to come to that view, I think (not there yet, but getting there). More seasoned stauch "traditional" Republicans like Lugar and Warner will have to come to agree with him. Of course if helicopters full of marines keep crashing for whatever reason (the adverse "Iraqi weather", malfunction or being shot down), it could change as well. But the Bush admin will at least try their best to hold out until after the 2006 elections, using it to rally their supporters once again, just as they did in 2002.

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