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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: michael97123 who wrote (157011)	1/26/2005 5:34:13 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Hi michael97123; Re: "Do you see an impending post election split in the insurgency itself with some nationalists choosing to play in the new government having gained some leverage in the non-participation in the election? I have this feeling that the nationalists may end up doing/attempting a Black September on the insurgents in order to gain favor and for ultimate self protection as well." I think that this is unlikely. From what I understand, the Iraqi people are quite upset that the US is beating the crap out of places like Falloujah. That makes it unlikely that a new Iraqi government would go beyond what we have done. Instead, I would expect them to put out peace feelers and negotiatiors. No matter what happens in the elections, there will still be an insurgency directed at us. As long as we stay in Iraq, we are a unifying force in the same way that a lightening rod protects a building. I don't think that there will be a civil war in Iraq until after we leave. But these are just guesses, I really have no idea. -- Carl

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