IBM Message Board - Msg: 20990912

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Technology Stocks : IBM

IBM 306.44

-1.9%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Angelo Ferraro who wrote (8030)	1/27/2005 4:22:57 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	of 8218

Angelo, I have followed IBM for many years and was an original poster from the inception of SI and truthfully, it is hard to know how the street is going to react. IBM has a tough time fighting the tape so if we are in a down draft of any kind (like now when there is a lot of January profit taking) it is hard for IBM to push higher even with a good report. The rise from the low 80s to the high 90s prior to earnings was in recognition of a perceived good quarter and when they produced even a beat of the estimate was not enough to propel it higher. I think you can buy puts for a sell on the news trade in the right environment but it really takes a lot of skill and knowledge to align the stars in the right direction. Its not something I can do for sure. I have my best success buying the trends. For instance, I think IBM will continue to have an excellent year but in the short term the stock will sell down some more, maybe to mid-March. Somewhere around the mid-80s would be some psychological support. Then later in the year it can test a new 52 week high. Just a guess of course, who knows, but that is the only way I have ever made money on IBM and I have had positions on and off since 1970.

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