Success of Iraqi election could hinge on turnout
A HISTORIC STEP
By Sally Buzbee
The Associated Press
Baghdad, Iraq - In most elections, the big question is "Who won?" In Iraq on Sunday, the bigger question may be "Who voted?" Turnout is considered key as Iraq prepares to take a historic first step toward democratic self-rule after decades of Saddam Hussein's oppression.
If reasonable numbers of the country's embattled Sunni Arab minority go to the polls, defying the insurgency, the rebels could lose steam. That would improve life for average Iraqis and might mean a quicker trip home for America's 150,000 troops.
But if most Sunnis stay away, either out of fear of attack or a belief the election is illegitimate, the new government could start out weak. Tensions might rise between Sunnis and the majority Shiites flush with new power. And the insurgency might get a shot in the arm.
A look at some key facts - and uncertainties - about the balloting:
Q: Who can vote? And how will they do it?
A: About 14 million people in Iraq are eligible to vote. In addition, 255,600 Iraqis living overseas have registered and can vote today through Sunday.
Each voter will go to a polling place, often at a neighborhood school. They will be led to a cardboard booth, and handed two ballots. Once the voter has marked the ballots, he or she hands them to an election worker, who drops them into a box. An election worker then marks the voter's hand with indelible ink to prevent repeat voting.
Q: Why two ballots?
A: One ballot contains candidates for a 275-member national assembly, and the other has candidates for the voter's provincial legislature. Voters in the Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Iraq will receive a third ballot with candidates for the self-governing region's parliament.
On each ballot, a voter will choose one list of candidates, rather than individual names. The number of candidates elected from each list depends on the percentage of votes the list receives nationwide.
Q: Who is expected to win?
A: The alliance endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, the country's top Shiite cleric, is expected to fare best. Another top-contending list is led by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite. A Kurdish list is expected to draw most votes among Kurds.
But no single list may win an outright majority, so the government's makeup may take weeks to shake out. The new national assembly will first elect a three- member presidency council, which will nominate a prime minister - the country's top job.
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