Gary,
But I am more concerned about short-term volatility, worldwide PC-demand and its effect on Intel's stock price
IMHO, PC-demand is still strong around the world. A company has to decide whether increased productivity is worth the higher cost. In most cases, they will pay the extra cash anyway.
Besides, the only major devaluations are in the SE Asia countries, which account for less than 19% of Intel's revenue as of the end of Q2. Take a look at intel.com . Asia-Pacific ex-Japan accounted for 19% of the revenues. This region includes Australia and China, which have not had currency meltdowns.
Japan is more worrisome. They appear to be sliding further into recession, and they account for 13% of Intel revenues. The bull in me says that Japan is deregulating their financial markets, and that means that the banks and insurance companies must be more efficient, or they will be eaten alive by their competitors such as CitiBank or Merrill Lynch. This remains to be seen, however.
Europe's economy, I think, has bottomed. At worst, it will stay where it is, so Intel's revenues won't decrease further. I'm cautiously optimistic about Europe.
I guess I don't need to talk about the North American economy, and South America is looking good (with major exceptions like Venezuala!).
In short, I think that things look pretty good for Intel, at least from a macroeconomic perspective.
(Off Topic)
What other Southeast Asian companies other than Bank of Bangkok are you familiar with? Perhaps now at the nadir, it is time to go back in?
I stick mostly to the developed economies, so I can't suggest any particular SE Asia companies. Most of my "Asian" investments are in Australia. Personally, I think there's more downside remaining. I'm going to wait a few months. One place I definitely won't go now is Malaysia. The government announced that they were going prop up their stock market by purchasing enough securities to bring the composite index up to 1000 (that's up 24%). This artificial support will temporarily hold, and then the index will collapse again. That might be the time to buy.
My $0.02
Chuck Martin |
