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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (25501)	1/28/2005 7:54:32 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 110194

>>I repeat 6 people have died. or is it 10 or even 35?<< None of the above >>When it hits 1,000 perhaps it is a threat.<< mish, The number reported to have died is about 10X your number (not sure where you came up with 6). The flu can move around the world pretty quickly once it is efficiently transmitted. That was actually demonstrated for the human vaccine. In 2002 most of the H3N2 subtypes were the Panama strain in the US. Fujian had just started to show up when a decision had to be made about this time 2 years ago. Although it was pretty clear that Fujian was emerging, the vaccine manufacturers were having some technical problems with the new strain, so the US (and the rest of the world) used Panama again. Last season there were quite a few deaths among younger children and the flu season got off to a quick start. Last year 80% of the H3N2 cases (and H3N2 was virtually all that was circulating) were Fujian. This year the flu vaccine is Fujian, but half of the US supply was contaminated so there was another shortage and this year Fujian had taken over so there were no Panama. However, the virus continued to evolve, so now Fujian is being replaced by Wellingtion. Most people don't expect flu to disappear, with or without a vaccine. But the new strain is able to displace the old strain in a year even though it has to infect hundreds of millions of people to do so. The virus in Vietnam has changed and this season there is more frequent human to human transmission. In fact a relatively high percentage of the cases this season form clusters, so for the virus to go from 100 to 1000 isn't too tough. In fact it has dome much more than that in this month with the poultry. This month alone, Vietnam alone has culled over 800,000 birds. Last year in Asia over 100 million birds were culled. Your jump from 50 to 1000 is small change and can happen in days and the virus (which has upped its fatality rate to about 90% now), can get around the world in a few days. Countries are drawing up plans and they don't include making 100's of millions of doses of vaccines or antivirals. They are focused on inflatable morgues and evacuation plans of entire cities like London. H5N1 doesn't take prisoners nor does it read press releases and so far its getting a free ride.

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