Betting a Billion: Bob's Predictions for 2005
By Robert X. Cringely
January 7, 2005
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I predicted that 2004 would be a critical year for streaming media. What I meant then was that Burst.com was going to beat Microsoft and lead to a new world order in streaming, but the trial was delayed and that hasn't happened.... yet. Okay, so I got this one wrong. Again, it is just a matter of timing (see below).
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2) Carrying over from last year, I predict that Burst.com will beat Microsoft in their current lawsuit. But to avoid having to eat crow again over timing, let me put this in greater context. IF a trial actually takes place, as it is now scheduled to do this summer, Burst will easily win. Microsoft is at a disadvantage already as a bully. Burst will probably get Judge Motz to tell the jury that Microsoft deliberately destroyed evidence, and it doesn't hurt, either, that Burst is just plain right on all counts -- Microsoft DID violate their patents, DID violate Burst's non-disclosure agreement, DID attempt to illegally put them out of business, and DID attempt to control the market.
Of course, Microsoft might settle before trial, but at this point, I don't think that is likely out of simple arrogance on Microsoft's part. Microsoft is furious with Burst for the little company's continued survival, plus Microsoft is listening to the wrong lawyers on this one. So Burst will win on some or all counts ,and I expect the damage award to be in the billions. Of course, Microsoft will appeal. But the key difference between this case and other Microsoft cases is that once Burst wins, Real Networks and Apple Computer, both of which are also infringing Burst's patents (along with TiVO and a bunch of other companies), will immediately buy Burst licenses, throwing $100+ million into Burst's coffers and leading to everyone else EXCEPT Microsoft taking a Burst license, too. At that point -- if it goes that far and Microsoft is that stupid -- Redmond won't be able to risk not having a Burst license and will settle, too. Only by waiting so long Microsoft will have blown any number of advantages it could have had. Typical.
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