Good morning Malcolm, U, if rises in price like Pt did, will push folks towards breeders, which extends the U supply by double digit fold, so I am told, even though such will produce nasty toxic stuff.
I am also told that progress is possible in disposal tecknology and know-how.
Coal, I am told, must be gasified / liquified, and such are power-hog processes. US may have centuries of coal, as do Russia, China, and India, but coal gasification/liquification probably require:
(a) political will
(b) absolute necessity
(c) a legal system that does not allow large employers and huge corporations to be sued into terminal decline
On largest CCJ and third largest ERA (Australia), I believe Taikun/David had shown us of the BBR the relative valuation per ounce of reserve, and ERA is way cheap. Australia currently does not export U to China. An agreement currently being negotiated (Aussie U cannot be used in Chinese nuclear reactors small enough to fit on top of a rocket) will likely be signed when concluded and that opens up the possibilities of ERA China sales. ERA ore grade is lower, I believe, but not justifying such a wide discount, I think.
Areva has 25+- % of the third largest U mine "Cogema" and provides front-end (design/construction/mining) as well as back-end (fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, plant refurbishment) services. It is the only publicly traded one-stop shop.
The big contest between Russia, Areva (French), Britain, Canada, and USA for Chinese reactor orders is getting pretty unseemly now. The US VP has been working on behalf of the US producers. I didn't realize that the White House is a marketing organization.
I suppose two technologies will be bought, for diversification of technology risk (cannot have 30 reactors of one design, and then find out the design is flawed).
I figure Canada and Britain are out, as China can buy other stuff from them, and they do not have oodles of experience.
I figure Russia will get orders based on their technology, as their disasters improved their know-how, and because there is so much Russia can/is offering China (weapons/energy/minerals/trouble-free border/etc).
So, the fight for the other reactor design boils down to the French against the Americans. A most interesting contest. Let's watch.
Chugs, Jay |
