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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)
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To: Larry S. who wrote (907)1/29/2005 11:05:48 PM
From: Larry S.   of 972
 
Wade & Dan, et al,

As I said two weeks ago when I last posted, it appears to me Dan that you were right on again. I can add now that, while I don't see what can move the dollar up nor gold down much from here, Faber seems to see very clearly that both can happen this Spring. But he see the dollar bear and gold bull taking over in the second half of the year.

Roundtable Parts II and III in Barron's the past two weeks provided more interesting comments. Both Faber and Zulauf are bullish on PMs long term but have reservations about the first half of the year. The general agreement that the dollar will fall further by the end of the year was reenforced by the comment in parts II and III.

The GMI/POG ratio for the past two weeks:

On 1/20, the Barron's GMI was 628.49, down slightly from last week's 629.66. With the POG up slightly at 423.30 (1/21), the ratio essentially unchanged at 1.49.

On 1/27, the Barron's GMI was 621.90, down slightly from last week's 628.49. With the POG up slightly at 426.80 (1/28), the ratio down at 1.46.

The ratio continues in the middle range where it doesn't suggest a rise or drop in the POG. It is clear that there is very little speculation behind the price of stocks at this time.

The ratio a year ago was 1.54, reflecting the fact that some of the optimism in the markets a few weeks earlier had disappeared..

Larry
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