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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who wrote (97622)1/30/2005 1:42:23 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) of 793901
 
Iraqi Elections - Predicting Success and a Chalabi Comeback
Profiles in Terror

Iraq is hours away from holding its elections. There will, no doubt, be violence. But it will also be the most open Arab election in half-a-century and turnout will be surprisingly high. Hopefully, it will be a great moment for freedom and the long-suffering Iraqi people.

MEMRI produced this excellent summary of the major players in Iraq's election.

The leading party overall is the United Iraq Alliance which is a coalition of Shia secular and religious parties (with a smattering of Kurds and Sunnis). Grand Ayatollah Sistani brokered its founding and Ahmed Chalabi is a key player. Although it has substantial religious components, it is apparently devoted to a secular Iraq. Many foreign policy players here in DC (particularly at Foggy Bottom and Langley) have spent the better part of the last decade trying to marginalize Ahmed. One of their big criticisms of him was that as an exile he had no real support on the ground in Iraq. Now he is on the verge of coming to power in an election.

Although there have been innumerable criticisms of Ahmed (including a banking scandal in that model of commercial probity - Jordan) the real problem with Ahmed is two-fold. First, his over-riding priority was always building a free Iraq. This priority was not shared in certain segments of the DC foreign policy mandarinate. He would not be their lapdog. Second, Ahmed is brilliant - brilliant enough that he could come to Washington and outmanuever the insiders. This combination of independence and competence did not endear him to the "stability hawks" who dominate foreign policy circles.

This is a wonderful case of American foreign policy succeeding despite itself.

Had the United States backed Ahmed completely, it is possible that the reconstruction of Iraq would have gone better. But at the same time, Ahmed would have been easily criticized as an American agent. Now, having been dumped by the U.S. (undeservedly in my opinion) he will come to power as part of a popularly elected coalition. Calling him an American agent will no longer be credible. But, whatever the politics de jour Ahmed believes in liberty and democracy and will steer Iraq in that direction. He may not be an ally in lockstep with U.S. interests - but he will be a true friend who shares core American values.

Lucky U.S. and lucky Iraq.
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