MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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From: adad69	1/30/2005 4:51:47 PM
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From JT JT quoted in Barron's Newspaper this week again. Lead MarketWatch Comment on Page 38 Inside Back Cover: Monday, January 31, 2005 MARKET WATCH A Sampling of Advisory Opinion Edited by ANITA PELTONEN StockMarketBulls.com 2364 Jackson St., Stoughton, Wis. 53589 JAN. 26 - Here [are some] reasons why the bottom is in and the next leg up in the bull market is under way: 1) Seasonality...a countertrend play: A down January is bullish, since this will act as a contrary signal and keep money out of the market until sentiment gets back in line with technicals. 2) Mutual-fund inflows registered a screaming buy at levels not seen since the mid-1990s at TrimTabs at the end of December -- and yet the market went down for three weeks in January. Why? Sentiment got ahead of the technicals in the market.... 3) Earnings grew 15.5%+ in 2004, yet the Dow and SPX registered gains of single-digit returns. For 2005, I expect S&P 500 year-over-year earnings to come in between 8% and 12% [while the] Dow and SPX [should] register gains of 16% to 22% for 2005 -- the opposite of 2004. 4) Non-existent inflation: I agree with the premise of rising inflation levels. This is good for the broad market, as it allows corporations to gain traction in passing off increased prices to the consumer. 5) Lower long-term rates: 10-year bond yield is in great shape, so long as the yield stays underneath 5.5%. We will not see these levels until 2006. As a result, bond-fund managers and investors will continue to seek out higher yield returns. At the [Jan. 25] close, StockMarketBulls.com registered a screaming buy in the junk-bond sentiment ratio...The market is now in the second intermediate phase of the next leg up in the bull market that will carry over into spring 2006. -- J.T. Ploch

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