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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (59695)1/30/2005 11:23:37 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
<Default, Dissipation, Dissolution, Deflation, Depression.

Also other words, such as Inflation, Confiscation, Redistribution, Stagflation, etc.
>

Jay, that sounds like a LOT of fun. But which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Deflation, inflation or stagflation?

I suppose inflation comes first because that has already come and been coming for a century as the US$ has whittled away, counteracted by the bigger deflation of other things such as cyberspace, which cost vast sums 40 years ago [just to buy one IBM computer which was not as good as my $10 calculator] but now is nearly free, and in any event, not much more than a few good bottles of wine. Not to mention cars, which cost years of work [or lifetimes] but now cost a few more bottles of wine. Buildings are cheaper too. I used to labour on scaffolding, messing around with reinforced concrete, taking years to build a low-grade building. Now they soar much higher and take many fewer hours and not many lives lost to build much swankier accommodations.

But maybe you meant we'll enter a hyperinflation first, like the excellent French example from long ago. Or maybe a deflation first? Or stagflation? The hunt for deflation is not going any better than the hunt for WMDs in Iraq. Message 20574774

So far, Uncle Al KBE is sticking to the script I've been expecting since May 1999, though he certainly takes a longgggg time to make it happen. I thought 2 years would have done a lot more that the last 6 years. SIX YEARS!! That's ridiculous. The 2001 Great Financial Collapse is still to arrive too and it's getting long in the tooth. October came and went [you had expected the end of the world by then].

Meanwhile, my pay rate keeps rising while everyone on Earth seems to be shorting the US$, from $ill Gates, to Warren Buffett and every man and his dog. I am getting several Happy Meals a month now, and more to come next week after the fed meeting. I am hoping for 0.5% to really rev things up a bit. Yummmy.

Everyone is betting against the fed. I'm with Big Al!

Confiscation and redistribution are nothing new - we live with that all day every day in New Zealand, run by Helengrad. Though I understand you meant in larger chunks and faster.

Mqurice
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