SARS - what next? Message Board

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Pastimes : SARS - what next?

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To: Henry Niman who wrote (1015)	1/31/2005 1:40:28 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 1070

14:21 = 2 in 3 or 66% which is an improvement on the 75% mortality I've seen so far. <Retrospective study in Thailand found 21 lab confirmed cases, 14 fatal. > Unless some of those 21 are still suffering the disease, in which case the 14 could increase. So far, controlling the disease is relatively easy, because all the fowl within a kilometre of a new case can be killed. That's quite a problem for the bug, limiting the number of human cases it can create and therefore reducing the number of recombination and reassortment opportunities and therefore delaying the time when it hits the jackpot, which it must eventually do unless something happens to stop the process. Once it's in the human realm, hopping from person to persons, the same process won't be available. We won't be killing everyone within a kilometre of a human case. So the spread of the bug, once it gets to humans in the right form, will be spectacular compared with the spread in domestic animals. Mqurice

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