Gold the G7 key to unlock Third World debt
Thu February 3, 2005 5:03 PM GMT+02:00
By Veronica Brown
<< it doesn't matter how the moolah is going to 'synthetized'. Just bring it in!!! We just need it to move our new post-Keynesian regime. We've got no time to lose!
Just dont tell MQ that gold will eventually be financing the iunwashed, chimps and the savages :-)>>
LONDON (Reuters) - A plan that seems to spin money out of thin air to pay poor countries' debts by revaluing IMF gold reserves is gathering steam ahead of this weekend's G-7 meeting of the world's richest nations, analysts said.
"This (proposal) has a lot of moral momentum going for it at present. Standing in the way of this is not going to be very popular," Barclays Capital precious metals analyst Kamal Naqvi said.
Under the proposal, backed by Britain's Chancellor (finance minister) Gordon Brown, reserves of the International Monetary Fund, the world's third biggest holder of gold bullion with more than 100 million ounces, would be revalued to levels achieved in the recent boom market in gold and other precious metals.
With current spot gold prices at about $415 an ounce, the value of some 90 million ounces of the IMF reserve, pegged at just above $40 an ounce under a 1971 agreement, would soar tenfold.
As part of a larger debt relief plan, that huge increase in value would be set against the hundreds of millions of dollars impoverished countries owe to the IMF.
Talk of the plan has overhung bullion markets this week.
"We believe that there could be more statements of support for the UK's plan, which proposes using IMF gold to fund poor country debt relief, from other G7 members ahead of, at or even after the G7 meeting in London this weekend," UBS Investment Bank analyst John Reade said in a daily report.
REVALUATION OR SALES?
The G7, which includes the world's richest countries, is split over how a move to write-off poor nations's debt should be financed.
The United States sees the World Bank, to which poor countries also owe huge sums, funding its own debt relief with grants.
Any proposal to revalue or sell IMF gold would need 85 percent majority of total voting power, giving the U.S. a strong hand as it holds more than 17 percent voting power.
HSBC metals analyst Alan Williamson said that revaluation could be the easiest path to take.
"It would enable the IMF to create extra revenue without disrupting the gold market or the revenues that a lot of the developing countries get from their gold sales," he said.
Between December 1999 and April 2000, the IMF conducted separate but closely linked gold revaluation transactions with Brazil and Mexico, which did not release the IMF's gold holdings on to the open market.
A spokeswoman from the industry-backed World Gold Council said it was aware of Brown's proposal, but would need full details before being able to assess the potential impact on the gold market.
Naqvi, of Barclays, said sale instead of revaluation was quite possible, and would be a negative factor for the market.
"Revaluation means little impact on the market and given that this issue has been hanging over it in recent weeks -- it could be price-supportive," he said.
"You had the South African mining minister saying quite clearly that sales are possible -- that's a pretty strong suggestion that sales are much more possible this time round."
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