Elmat, <<Russia China announce strategic partnership to counter expanding Western military and fiscal influences. India and Brazil will be invited to join the alliance>>
... You are not suggesting that there should be yet another convolution of evil or axis of doom, are you?
Stratfor apparently believes that Russia, with all them nuke, resources, and people, is quaking in its boots ...
Geopolitical Diary: Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2005
stratfor.com
Feb 03, 2005
U.S. President George W. Bush delivered the first State of the Union address of his second term on Wednesday, just days after the Iraqi election. The speech focused on several contentious domestic issues -- including Social Security reform, stem cell research, alternative energy and a constitutional ban on gay marriage. On the international front, Bush pressed his administration's agenda for spreading democracy as a guard against the rise and spread of terrorism.
With his re-election behind him, Bush is shifting focus in efforts to free himself from the constraints of hunting Osama bin laden and al Qaeda. In fact, al Qaeda drew only a single mention in the address, and bin Laden rated not even that. Instead, Bush touted a proactive program based on encouraging -- actively or otherwise -- the change of regimes around the world, echoing comments made by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during her confirmation hearing. Bush made it clear that "tyranny" was the new evil out there.
The intent is to shift the international perception of the United States, which is seen as fighting a war of revenge against al Qaeda, to that of a standard-bearer of freedom for people the world over. And this, according to Bush, is all about coalitions. The president touched on the cooperation of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and nine other countries in tracking down terrorists, and mentioned the six-way talks to solve the North Korean nuclear situation.
But he also threw out some clear threats toward governments in the Middle East. Bush called on the Saudis to have free elections and on the Egyptians to show the path to democracy. He was less reserved in his comments on Syria and Iran, however. Bush accused Syria of providing sanctuary for terrorists, calling on Damascus to end support for terrorism and open the door to freedom. As for Iran, he said it remained the world's primary sponsor of terrorism, and told the Iranian people that if they stood for their own liberty, America would stand with them.
The clear call in the Middle East was for regime change -- peaceful and internally directed in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, but perhaps forcefully or through subversion in Syria and Iran.
Perhaps most interesting was the place Ukraine took in the speech -- in opening remarks and as a case study in democracy arriving in an undemocratic nation. Bush tried to bask in the glow of the outcome of the Ukraine election almost as much as he did for the Iraqi election. Ukraine is obviously the preferred model for regime change -- internally funded and directed, relatively peaceful, and needing the United States for rhetorical backing and perhaps some covert planning and coordination. This is the method the administration would like to see spread to other places, from Europe to the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia.
The focus on Ukraine, however, is significant in another way. It allows Bush to be given credit for stripping from Russia a key buffer and piece of the Russian near-abroad. Moscow's greatest fear -- of the United States pressing the borders of the "West" right up to the Russian border and leaving Russia vulnerable -- is apparently now a reality. The administration already has mentioned Belarus in the same sentence as other "outposts of tyranny" such as Iran and North Korea, and Moscow is growing nearly as nervous as Damascus.
When Bush took office four years ago, his administration was looking at long-term strategic threats -- primarily from countries with the potential to arise as regional or global challengers. That put China at the top of the list and Russia not far behind. The Sept. 11 attacks altered Washington's more immediate focus, but things are shifting back to the core concerns as the U.S.-jihadist war becomes more routinized. Washington apparently is seeking to ensure that the post-Cold War order -- that of a single superpower with no viable challengers -- becomes the new stable paradigm.
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