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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (25820)2/3/2005 3:02:12 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
the thing that has me concerned is if it does a QCOM--an insane, blowoff top. in late November/early December 1999, QCOM was already a 13-bagger and trading at 400 (after splitting around June). then, in the space of two or three weeks, it went to 800, totally defying logic and killing a lot of call sellers. it ended the year a 25- or 26-bagger, the greatest 1-yr performance for any stock in the SPX.

now, 5 years later, QCOM's still 28% below the 400 mark (split-adjusted), even after more than doubling off the 2002 lows.

so i think one must ask what is the tipping point for GOOG--how will you know. i certainly don't think valuation can be called the tipping point, because it seems the valuation can become almost arbitrarily high in the short term.

the shares? maybe the shares are the catalyst. that Sage Capital paper certainly gives the google plutocracy some food for thought once the flood gates open in a couple weeks.
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